The impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnamese exports to the US: a quantitative study using DiD approach

Manuscript code article-28270
DOI 10.1108/jts-02-2024-0007
Keywords: The US-China trade war Impact evaluation Bystanders Vietnamese exports to the United States DiD F13 F14 F60

Abstract

Purpose The study attempts to examine the impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnamese exports to the United States, which has consistently served as a key market for Vietnamese goods and services in recent decades. The heterogeneous effects of the trade war on different export sectors are also evaluated.Design/methodology/approach The secondary data on Vietnamese exports to the US at a 6-digit level is collected from UN Comtrade. Besides, the difference-in-differences (DiD) method is employed to analyze the impact of the trade war on exports from Vietnam to the United States.Findings The findings revealed a 14% increase in total Vietnamese exports to the United States due to the trade war. Examining heterogeneous effects, certain industries, such as plastics, iron or steel articles, textiles and garments, and machinery and mechanical appliances, experience significant benefits. However, the study did not identify statistically significant effects on other sectors, such as electrical machinery products, agricultural and forestry, and furniture.Originality/value The paper is one among limited studies considering the causal effects of the trade war on a developing country, accounting for the heterogeneous effects on different export sectors.

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Authors

Dang, Binh Thi Thanh Economics Department, Thuongmai University, Hanoi, Vietnam Yawei, Wang Graduate School of International Social Science, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Japan Abdullah, Abdul Jabbar Universiti Teknologi MARA Sarawak Branch, Sarawak, Malaysia

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Published November 13, 2024
Ngày nộp bài November 13, 2024
Ngày chỉnh sửa August 9, 2026
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DOI: 10.1108/jts-02-2024-0007

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